International Energy Agency (IEA) Outlook on Oil Supply and Demand Trends

Global oil demand growth is projected to decelerate from 990 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in the first quarter of 2025 to approximately 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year. This slowdown is attributed to persistent economic headwinds and record levels of electric vehicle (EV) sales, which are dampening oil consumption. Despite this moderation, average demand growth is expected to reach 740 kb/d in 2025 and 760 kb/d in 2026. These figures are achieved in the context of accelerating declines in oil demand from OECD countries, projected at -120 kb/d in 2025 and -240 kb/d in 2026.

Global oil supply is anticipated to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), reaching an average of 104.6 mb/d in 2025, with a further rise of 970 kb/d projected for 2026. Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to account for the majority of this growth, contributing 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 820 kb/d in 2026, despite downward revisions to U.S. light tight oil (LTO) production. OPEC+ supply is forecast to rise by 310 kb/d in 2025 and an additional 150 kb/d in 2026, based on current production plans.

Forecasts for global refinery throughput in 2025 and 2026 remain largely unchanged from the previous month’s report, standing at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively. Annual throughput gains of approximately 400 kb/d in both years are expected to be driven entirely by non-OECD regions. Refining margins reached 12-month highs across most regions and refinery configurations in late April, supported by a marked shift in crude oil pricing dynamics that enhanced profitability.

Global oil inventories rose by 25.1 million barrels (mb) in March, primarily due to a 57.8 mb increase in crude oil stocks. Despite this build, total inventories stood at 7,671 mb—221 mb below the five-year average. OECD inventories increased by 3.1 mb, while non-OECD stocks rose by 21.3 mb. Oil in transit (oil on water) saw a modest increase of 0.7 mb. Preliminary data suggest that global oil inventories continued to expand in April.

Source: International Energy Agency