Risks of European Refinery Closures Amid Declining Demand and Excess Capacity

Amid intensifying global supply competition, fuel consumption and demand for refined products in Europe are projected to decline further as the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) accelerates. This trend is expected to place additional strain on the refining sector. While some countries maintain a relatively balanced supply-demand dynamic, others are confronted with pronounced overcapacity challenges. Notably, five European nations possess significantly greater refining capacity than their domestic requirements. Among these, Sweden and Italy are particularly vulnerable to potential refinery closures. Both countries are actively transitioning segments of their industrial output towards biofuels and operate some of the continent’s oldest refining facilities. In Sweden, the limited potential for exports exacerbates the risk.

Conversely, Greece and the Netherlands are anticipated to retain a competitive advantage, bolstered by robust export infrastructure. In contrast, Belarus’s refining sector remains relatively insulated from market volatility due to substantial government support. Refining operations that benefit from a strong market position, favorable geographic location, and access to a diversified mix of crude sources and product markets are most likely to sustain viability within Europe’s contracting fuel landscape.