OPEC Analysis of Crude Oil Price Trends and Global Economic Developments
May 2025
Trends and Volatility in Crude Oil Prices
In April, the value of the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) decreased by $5.02, or 6.8% month-on-month (m-o-m), averaging $68.98 per barrel. Similarly, the ICE Brent front-month contract declined by $5.01, or 7.0% m-o-m, to an average of $66.46 per barrel. The NYMEX WTI front-month contract also fell by $4.98, or 7.3% m-o-m, averaging $62.96 per barrel. The GME Oman front-month contract registered a decrease of $4.65, or 6.4% m-o-m, to an average of $67.85 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the spread between the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI first-month contracts narrowed slightly by $0.03 m-o-m, averaging $3.50 per barrel. Furthermore, the front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman forward curves exhibited further strengthening during April on a m-o-m basis. The nearest-month time spreads moved into deeper backwardation, indicating increased market optimism regarding the short-term outlook.
Global Economic Overview
The global economy continues to exhibit a steady growth trajectory despite recent developments related to tariffs. The global economic growth forecast for 2025 has been slightly revised downward to 2.9%, while the forecast for 2026 remains steady at 3.1%.
Following the decline in economic growth observed in the first quarter of 2025, the United States’ growth projections have been adjusted downward to 1.7% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain stable at 1.0% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026. In light of the better-than-expected performance during the first quarter of 2025, the Eurozone’s growth forecast for 2025 has been marginally revised upward to 1.0%, while the forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 1.1%. China’s growth projections remain unchanged at 4.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026. Similarly, India’s forecasts are stable at 6.3% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026. Brazil’s economic growth projections remain unchanged at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026.
Likewise, Russia’s growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain steady at 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.
