An Overview of Oil Demand and Supply by OPEC MOMR

The June edition of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) presents the following projections for global oil demand and supply:

Assessment of Global Oil Demand

The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment, at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year (y-o-y). Minor revisions were made, primarily reflecting updated actual data for the first quarter of 2025.

In the OECD region, oil demand is projected to increase by approximately 0.2 mb/d in 2025, while demand in non-OECD countries is expected to rise by over 1.1 mb/d.

Looking ahead to 2026, global oil demand is also forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d y-o-y, consistent with the previous month’s projections. Within this total, OECD demand is anticipated to grow by around 0.1 mb/d y-o-y, and non-OECD demand by approximately 1.2 mb/d y-o-y.

Assessment of Global Oil Supply

Liquids supply from non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) countries—those not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation—is projected to grow by approximately 0.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2025, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The primary contributors to this growth are expected to be the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.

For 2026, the non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast has been slightly revised downward to 0.7 mb/d, with the same countries—namely the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina—anticipated to remain the main drivers of growth.

Meanwhile, the supply of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is projected to increase by 0.1 mb/d y-o-y in 2025, reaching an average of 8.4 mb/d. A similar increase of approximately 0.1 mb/d y-o-y is expected in 2026, bringing the average to 8.5 mb/d.

According to available secondary sources, crude oil production from DoC-participating countries rose by 180 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) month-on-month (m-o-m) in May, averaging approximately 41.23 mb/d.

Source: OPEC MOMR – June 16, 2025