Key Highlights from the IEA Oil Market Report – July 2025

Global oil demand growth is projected to increase by 700 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 2025, marking the slowest annual growth rate since 2009, excluding the exceptional downturn in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth decelerated from 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the first quarter of 2025 to just 550 kb/d in the second quarter, with particularly weak consumption observed across emerging markets. Looking ahead, global oil demand is forecast to expand by 720 kb/d in 2026, reaching a total of 104.4 mb/d.

Global oil supply experienced a significant month-over-month increase of 950 kb/d in June, reaching 105.6 mb/d, primarily driven by higher output from Saudi Arabia. On a year-over-year basis, supply rose by 2.9 mb/d, with OPEC+ contributing 1.9 mb/d of that increase. With elevated OPEC+ production targets set for August, global oil supply is expected to rise by 2.1 mb/d to 105.1 mb/d in 2025, followed by a further increase of 1.3 mb/d in 2026. These gains are anticipated to be led by non-OPEC+ producers, adding 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and 940 kb/d in 2026.

Following a 1.7 mb/d increase in global refinery throughputs in June, runs are expected to rise by an additional 2 mb/d in July and August, peaking seasonally at 85.4 mb/d. Refinery activity is forecast to grow by 500 kb/d in 2025 and 460 kb/d in 2026, averaging 83.3 mb/d and 83.8 mb/d, respectively. Refining margins softened in June amid rising crude oil prices but subsequently rebounded to multi-month highs in early July, supported by stronger diesel crack spreads.

Observed global oil inventories rose by 73.9 million barrels (mb) in May, reaching 7,818 mb, driven by increases in OECD commercial product stocks and crude inventories in non-OECD countries. Crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and feedstocks recorded a fourth consecutive monthly rise, increasing by 49.7 mb—largely due to a sharp uptick in China. Oil product inventories also rose for the first time this year, up by 24.2 mb. Preliminary data for June indicate that global oil stocks continued to increase, primarily due to higher volumes of oil in transit and further builds in non-OECD countries.

Source: International Energy Agency