OPEC Feature Article: Developments in Crude and Refined Product Prices During the First Half of 2025″

Crude oil prices exhibited notable volatility during the first half of 2025, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, as well as uncertainties surrounding United States trade policy. This price volatility was further amplified by speculative activity in the oil futures market, with hedge funds actively repositioning in response to evolving geopolitical and economic developments.

Nevertheless, market fundamentals remained robust, with a well-balanced global oil supply and demand structure. Commercial oil inventories within OECD countries fell below both 2024 levels and the five-year average, signaling continued inventory drawdowns. In June, refineries increased crude intake in preparation for elevated summer fuel demand, supported by strong interest in prompt-loading cargoes.

Key refined product prices recovered in June following five consecutive months of decline, underpinned by seasonal demand growth and a tightening product supply balance, although year-on-year levels remained lower. Gasoline prices in the Atlantic Basin demonstrated relative strength, bolstered by unplanned refinery outages linked to adverse weather conditions earlier in the year.

Looking ahead, refinery throughput is projected to increase in alignment with rising seasonal demand for transportation fuels.

Source: OPEC MOMR – 15 July, 2025

* Please refer to the OPEC MOMR for the full article.