OPEC World Oil Outlook 2050 Future growth in oil demand is expected to be driven primarily by the road transport, petrochemical, and aviation sectors.

Oil consumption across various modes of transportation remains a fundamental driver of global oil demand throughout the forecast period. In 2024, the transportation sector accounted for over 57% of total oil demand worldwide, a proportion that is anticipated to remain relatively stable with minor fluctuations through to 2050.

Within the transportation sector, the most substantial increases in oil demand are projected to occur in road transport and aviation, contributing an additional 5.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) and 4.2 mb/d, respectively. The petrochemical sector is also expected to register a notable increase in demand, rising by 4.7 mb/d over the same period.

The projected growth in oil demand from road transportation is primarily attributed to the significant expansion of the global vehicle fleet, particularly in developing economies. The total number of vehicles worldwide is forecast to rise from 1.7 billion in 2024 to 2.9 billion by 2050. While the electric vehicle (EV) segment is expected to experience the most rapid growth, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are projected to maintain a dominant share, accounting for approximately 72% of the global fleet by 2050.

Source: OPEC WOO 2050 – July 2025