Goldman Sachs Maintains Brent Oil Forecast While Cautioning on Potential Downside Risks to Demand

August 4 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs on Sunday reaffirmed its forecast for oil prices, projecting that Brent crude will average $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $56 in 2026. However, the bank noted that recent developments have introduced a broader range of risks to its baseline projections.

Goldman Sachs also highlighted a potential downside risk to its forecast for average annual oil demand growth of 800,000 barrels per day in 2025–2026. This risk stems from rising U.S. tariff rates, the threat of additional secondary tariffs, and weaker-than-expected economic data from the United States.

According to the bank’s economists, the recent economic indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is currently expanding at a pace below its potential, thereby increasing the likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months.

In a related development, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia (collectively known as OPEC+), announced on Sunday their decision to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This move is part of a broader strategy to accelerate output in an effort to reclaim market share.

“While OPEC+ policy remains flexible, we anticipate that the group will maintain its production quota beyond September. This expectation is based on our forecast that the pace of builds in OECD commercial inventories will accelerate, and that seasonal demand tailwinds will diminish,” Goldman Sachs stated.

As of 0115 GMT, Brent crude futures were trading at $69.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood at $66.96 per barrel.

“We continue to assess the likelihood of major disruptions to Russian oil supply as low, given the substantial volumes of ongoing Russian exports, the potential for deeper price discounts to sustain demand, and the continued strong interest from key buyers such as China and India,” the Goldman Sachs analysts added.

Source: Reuters – August 4, 2025