Reduced Number of Refineries Accompanied by Increased Capacity: Leadership of the Middle East and Asia

Global refining is experiencing substantial transformation driven by evolving regional demand patterns, sustainability imperatives, and concerns surrounding energy security. According to Rystad Energy, although the number of operational refineries has decreased since its peak in 2011, global refining capacity has nonetheless expanded by approximately 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing an increase of roughly 15% over the past two decades.

The Middle East, China, and India have emerged as pivotal contributors to this capacity growth. China’s refining capacity has nearly doubled, rising from 10.6 million bpd in 2005 to an estimated 18.8 million bpd in 2025, driven primarily by domestic demand and strategic energy security objectives. Similarly, India has augmented its refining capacity from 2.9 million bpd in 2005 to approximately 5.2 million bpd as of this year, supported by robust consumption growth and significant infrastructure investments. The Middle East has also expanded its refining capacity, increasing from nearly 8 million bpd to around 13 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates leading this expansion through efforts to enhance value via downstream integration and increased exports of refined products.

Source: Rystad Energy – August 11, 2025