OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Analysis of Crude Oil Prices, the Global Economy, and the Supply–Demand Balance

Trends and Developments in Crude Oil Prices

In July, the value of the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by $1.24 month-on-month (m-o-m), averaging $70.97 per barrel. By contrast, the ICE Brent front-month contract declined by $0.25 m-o-m, averaging $69.55 per barrel, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract decreased by $0.09 m-o-m, averaging $67.24 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the GME Oman front-month contract increased by $1.93 m-o-m, averaging $71.42 per barrel. The ICE Brent–NYMEX WTI first-month spread narrowed by $0.16 m-o-m, averaging $2.31 per barrel.

Both the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forward curves flattened slightly in July, on a month-on-month basis, yet continued to reflect strong backwardation. In contrast, the GME Oman forward curve strengthened further, moving into deeper backwardation.

Additionally, hedge funds and other money managers substantially increased their bullish positions in ICE Brent, while markedly reducing their net long positions in NYMEX WTI.

Developments in the World Economy

The global economy is projected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, underpinned by the solid momentum observed during the first half of 2025. The forecast for global economic growth in 2025 has been revised slightly upward to 3.0%, while the projection for 2026 remains unchanged at a robust 3.1%.

For the United States, the 2025 growth forecast has been revised marginally higher to 1.8%, with the 2026 projection maintained at 2.1%. Japan’s growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.0% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026. In the Eurozone, economic growth projections have been revised modestly upward to 1.2% in both 2025 and 2026.

China’s growth forecast for 2025 has been adjusted slightly upward to 4.8%, while the 2026 forecast is maintained at 4.5%. India’s growth outlook remains steady at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Brazil’s projections are unchanged at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026, while Russia’s growth forecasts are also unchanged at 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.

Source: OPEC MOMR – August 2025